碳峰值:随着雾霾的消散，我们会看到更光明的未来吗?

尽管2019冠状病毒病继续在全球造成毁灭性后果, the lockdown triggered by the virus has driven a material reduction in atmospheric CO₂ 水平. Recent analysis by NASA and the European Space Agency shows that in cities like Beijing, 洛杉矶, 伦敦和新德里, 现在的空气质量比人们记忆中的任何时候都要干净, 而国际能源署的研究表明，到2020年，全球排放量可能会下降8%.

在这种背景下，我们显然正处于一个重要的十字路口. 随着各国开始考虑如何重启经济, 对环境的缓解是短暂的吗? 或者这标志着一个新篇章的开始? Will the lessons from COVID-19 enable us to pull together to deliver the energy transition or push us further apart?

There is a lot to consider; the worst public health crisis in 100 years, 气候紧急情况, 以及80年来最严重的经济动荡. Protecting people’s health and reinvigorating the economy are non-negotiable, 然而，这不应该损害更广泛的环境, 社会和治理(ESG)要求.

我们必须回答的关键问题是:我们会看到支出计划吗, 支持低碳未来的政策和一揽子计划, 或不?

在木, 我们相信向清洁能源的过渡, 更健康的, decarbonised world can be accelerated by focussing on key areas of mutual benefit to people, 地球与利润. Two of the fundamental enablers of this shift – accelerating the energy transition and sustainable infrastructure development – underpin our current strategy and have been at the heart of the deliberate steps we have taken to diversify our own business in recent years. We have broadened our business from oilfield services into a consulting and engineering company that holds strong positions in a range of end markets including renewables, 基础设施和环境咨询. The events of the last few months reinforce our view that this strategy was the correct one – we’re less exposed to the volatility of commodity prices and are seeing growing demand for our services in areas including solar and onshore wind EPC projects, 绿色和蓝色氢, 碳捕集与封存, 以及其他脱碳解决方案.

Whilst we understand the transition will play out differently across individual regions, 团结将比以往任何时候都更加重要. We need a ‘global citizen’ mindset with developed nations leading the charge, 展示领导力和降低技术风险. 如果政府和企业刺激清洁增长, we can ensure that the positive impact that COVID-19 has unexpectedly had on our environment endures – enabling future generations to look back on 2019 as the year of peak carbon.

作为Wood的首席战略官, I lead scenario planning work which is helping us to navigate what is a VUCA (volatility, 不确定性, 复杂性 & 模棱两可)环境. 规划最好的前进道路, we’ve identified five steps we would like to see prioritised as part of a coordinated global response:

1. 维护能源安全 – access to reliable and affordable energy will remain a crucial enabler of future social and economic prosperity. The need to meet rising energy demand and protect industry jobs means that fossil fuels will remain part of the global energy mix for some time to come. Meeting net zero targets will require aggressive industrial decarbonisation with oil and gas operators well placed to solve complex technical challenges.
2. 加快清洁技术投资 ——谢天谢地, 由于产量的增加和成本的迅速下降, the economics of renewable power are 现在 much 关闭r to traditional oil and gas. 在改善储存方面需要进一步投资, 传输与分配, as well as integration of increased renewable power into existing infrastructure. Significant investment in CCUS and hydrogen solutions will speed up our ability to decarbonise industry and hard to abate sectors.
3. 激励脱碳 -在技术上可行的情况下, 减少燃除, 甲烷泄漏和其他排放需要额外的投资. Governments can drive more focus on this area through direct policy levers, whether that is incentivising more active carbon management or penalising a lack of action.  Now is the time to build on the momentum created in 2019 to drive decarbonisation as a business and investment imperative.
4. 建设可持续发展的城市环境 ——政府刺激低碳能源投资, mobility and utility infrastructure can help to drive down emissions from these sectors on a permanent basis. Finding the right blend of incentives to stimulate the green economy will be critical for each country. 人们已经体验了另一种城市环境, creating green spaces and increasing liveability alongside protecting livelihoods will be more important than ever.
5. 支持灵活的综合社区 – a lasting impact of COVID-19 may be a transformative shift towards remote working and home offices. 如果这成为现实, we are likely to see a drop in commuting and a greater phasing of travel across urban infrastructure. This could bring much needed stimulus to out of town communities willing to share workspaces, 能源生产和数字连接.

Many of the measures outlined above are longer-term plays that require time and investment. 这些转变不会在一夜之间发生，需要更小的规模, 增量目标也能带来短期收益. 改造世界需要雄心, but it will also require sacrifice and a willingness for business and government to accept new commercial models that may involve lower and less volatile returns over a longer timeframe

就像我们计划未来一样, there’s no better way to honour the lives that have been lost and the people who continue to put their lives at risk during these extraordinary times, than by making 2020 a turning point and a catalyst from which we begin to build a more sustainable future for the next generation.